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Hypothetical Analysis on Presidential Election -2010 (2nd Update – on 05th January, 2010) Summary Result of the Past Presidential Elections (1982-2005) | | | | | | One half of Valid Votes (50%+1) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 81.06% | 1.22% | 98.78% | 52.91% | 39.07% | 4.19% | 2.67% |
| 1.16% | | | | | | | | | |
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| | 55.32% | 1.76% | 98.24% | 50.43% | 44.95% |
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| 4.63% |
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| | | 70.47% | 1.97% | 98.03% | 35.91% | 62.28% | 0.30% |
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| 1.51% | | | | | | | | | | |
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| | | 73.31% | 2.31% | 97.69% | 42.71% | 51.12% | 4.08% |
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| 2.09% | | | | | | | | | |
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| | | 73.73% | 1.12% | 98.88% | 48.43% | 50.29% |
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| 1.27% | VALID VOTES EQUAL TO ONE HALF (50%) § Number of valid votes equal to one-half (50%+1) is increasing by 110,000 every year. § Average voters turn out is higher than other national elections; it was recorded 75%-80% in several districts in the past elections. § Because of massive voters' drop out in North and Eastern Provinces , the all island average voters' turnout was 73.73% in 2005. § 689,649 (36.18%) voters were polled at North and Eastern provinces in the PE 2005. If it was to the national average (73.73%), it would be reached 1,405,485. Around 700,000 votes were not polled. Presidential Election - 2005 § It is obvious that there would be dramatic increase in voters' turn out in the North and Eastern Provinces compared to the PE 2005. § Therefore at the forthcoming Presidential Election (2010), the winning candidate should have to obtain around 5,500,000 votes to reach the required one half of the total valid votes (50%+1). PARTY POSITION AND STRENGTH § The results of Provincial Councils elections held in year 2008/09 are the key measure for the forecasting. § The ruling UPFA registered landslide victory in all provincial council elections (08). It obtained more votes than the PE 2005 in 13 districts, except Anuradhapura , Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Colombo , Matara and Hambantota districts. All Island Summary Presidential (2005) and Provincial Council Elections (2008/09)
§ Further, the ruling UPFA was able to establish a few pockets (vote banks) in the minority dominant regions, other than the Presidential Election held in year 2005. Mainly in the East (Karuna- Pillayan, Ameer-Ali, Moulana,),Vanni (Siddharthan, Kishor) and the Up-country (CWC and UPF). § The UNP remained stable with their fixed votes while facing mass cross-over (26 MPs). At the 2004 Provincial Council Election it obtained 2,570,801 (39.13%) votes and it slowly grew up to 2,609,386 in the PC elections 2008/09. Since the PC election – 2004, it had succeeded to double its vote bank in one year period at the presidential election -2005 where UNP obtained 4,706,366 (48.43%), just 148,154 votes less than the one half (4,858,520: 50%+1). | UPFA - Party Position | | Provincial Council Election (2008/09) and the After Movements | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | (The data based on the election results of Matara and Hambantota districts (PCE 2009) | § The results of the Southern Provincial Council Election (10.10.2009) showed a slight decline in the position of ruling UPFA in the district of Hambantota (6%) and Matara (8%) where traditionally it has a wide support base. This trend may reflect on the results of forthcoming election in other districts too. The drop rate may vary 10% to 15%. § The JVP was the key partner of the ruling UPFA at the General Election- 2004, Provincial Council Election-2004 and Presidential election- 2005. Compared to the latest Provincial Council Elections, it had dropped its stand by 68% than at the Local Government Election-2006 (746,975: 9.28%). Now it is recuperating as it was in year 2000 by attempting to gain popularity. It uses the anti-corruption plank extensively. § The Leadership issue was the major question during the past elections for the UNP. Now it has been settled with an alternative leadership and the remarkable coalition (UNP+JVP+SLMC+DPF+…). This special force is expected to double the strength of the New Democratic Front (SWAN) than at the results of North Central PC and Sabaragamuwa PC Elections which gave a great challenge to ruling UPFA where the UNP was led by Major General Janaka Perera and Ranjan Ramanayake respectively. Major Factors and the Attitudes The Majority The voters of the majority community are divided into three main political streams (UPFA, UNP, and JVP). However the main UPFA coalition would get more votes (55%) from the majority due to the war victory. The forces of the hardliner of the majority community (JHU/Patriotic movements) are stressing that the General SF is a traitor. It may bring more negative impact to the Common coalition. In the meantime a number of voters (44%) would support General SF on the grounds of war victory, good governance, anti-corruption and the party loyalties. The Minorities (Tamils and Muslims) Tamil and Muslim minorities that constitute about 3.5 million voters against the 5.5 million for one half of the total valid votes required for the Presidential Election (2010) are the major decisive factor. They are strongly positioned in the North and Eastern Provinces and some pockets in the Southern region. About 80% of Sri Lankan Tamils boycotted the Presidential Election-2005 on the LTTE's order. However, at the forthcoming election, nearly 67% of North and Eastern Tamils would cast their vote. Compared to Southern average, it would be a low turnout. Out of the total polled, the vote division would be 70% for the Common Candidate, 21% for the ruling UPFA and the rest (09%) to the Tamil candidate/others. There are about 1.3mn Muslim voters all over the country. Nearly 72% of voters would support to the Common Candidate. The percentage would vary spatially according to the personal political characters (Ministers/MPs). In the North and Eastern provinces, the vote variation to the common candidate and UPFA would be 68:32. But in the South it would be over 75% to the common candidate due to govt.'s inability to hear the grievances of the Muslims (Southern SL) and the traditional political party affiliation (UNP+SLMC). In the up-country, the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) and Up-Country People's Front (UPF) declared their support to the ruling UPFA. Meanwhile the flourishing Democratic People's Front (DPF), UNP-JVP Tamils supporters, and the dissidents of the CWC (Sachchithananthan, Yogarajan) and the number of Indian Tamils would extend their support to the Common Candidate. Here the votes division to the UPFA and the Common Candidate would be 53:47. The Forecasts Forecast I: Attitude of the Voters by Major Ethnic Groups | | | Total Polled | Rejected | Valid | MR | SF | Others | | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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